Maximise the opportunity or minimise the threat

2015 went down in the history books as the year of a record breaking harvest, but sadly the crop price was at a low. 2016 will of course go down in the history books for the two big political changes that occurred. Such political events very quickly impact on business, with currency fluctuation at the heart of it. Whether selling grain or buying fertilizer, the currency changes had an immediate impact creating volatility that had both positive and negative impacts. 

There is one common thread in the two years and that is how final crop yield and profitability is determined by unknown and unpredictable events. In 2015 it was the unknown, non-forecast solar radiation and rainfall timing combination, whilst in 2016 it was the unknown, non-forecast political changes that led to currency fluctuation. Yield targets are therefore inappropriate drivers for recommendations. 

What this highlights is the need to set our crops up with the best possible yield potential such that when these unknowns come into play we can either maximise the opportunity or minimise the threat. The other critical focus should be on identifying yield potential early on in the crop growth cycle and tailor inputs commensurate with this, or take decisions that can get it ‘back on track’. 

Measure to Manage should be everyone’s 2017 motto

Benchmarking your own crops against a physiological growth model is an area that needs to be prioritised in 2017 as it will enable a much more proactive and dynamic decision making process leading to more bespoke recommendations. Hopefully forecasting yield accurately will eventually come but, whilst the long term weather continues to be known in hindsight, it feels someway off. 

This is why the use of ‘big data’ can play an important role. Far from being fashionable buzz words with no impact, big data can help us make important decisions for our crops. The vast area of our wheat crop now infested with blackgrass is a classic example of where such data could be of value, steering more appropriate crop management decisions. What any decision making process requires is knowledge, defined as “ facts, information and skills acquired through experience or education”. This important intelligence is derived from the collection of data through soil and leaf analysis, historical harvest information and precision agronomy data. The collection of such data should now be part of every farm’s routine, because of the potential value it holds to future agronomy decisions.