Weather

Tuesday 7th February 2012
WARNINGS: Wintry Precipitation (N Hills). Fog or Freezing Patches (Central and S). Ice (N and E).

SUMMARY: Some patchy rain or showers continuing across the N and W, otherwise fine and settled.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: A large area of high pressure extending from the SW to the NE of the U.K. is forecast to dominate across S and E areas, whilst a more unsettled SW’ly air mass persists across parts of the N and W.

WIND: SW light or moderate, fresh in the NW, though light and variable in the SE. 

WEATHER: Mainly dry across many S and E areas of the U.K. with some bright or sunny spells once mist and fog patches slowly disperse.  It is expected to remain mostly cloudy further N and W with some mainly light or moderate rain or showers at times and these wintry on N hills.

TEMPERATURE: Slightly below average, though milder further W. Frost and some ice overnight away from the W.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: High – 90%

Wednesday 8th February 2012
WARNINGS: Wintry Precipitation (N Hills). Fog or Freezing Patches (Central and S). Ice (E).

SUMMARY: Little change, remaining dry, rather cold and settled for most away from the N and W.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: High pressure remains dominant across S and E areas of the U.K., as low pressure persists to the NW with a continued milder and more unsettled SW’ly air mass across parts of the N and W.

WIND: SW light or moderate, locally fresh in the NW, E or NE’ly light in the S. 

WEATHER: Dry across many S and E areas with some bright or sunny spells after mist and fog patches slowly clear, whilst mostly cloudy further N and W with some rain and showers at times and these wintry on N hills.

TEMPERATURE: Slightly below average in S and E areas with frost and patchy ice, milder further N and W.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: Medium to high – 80%

Thursday 9th February 2012
WARNINGS: Fog or Freezing Fog Patches (Central and S). Wintry Precipitation (N Hills)

SUMMARY: Some patchy rain and showers across the far N and W, otherwise fine, settled and cold.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: High pressure located either over or just to the E or NE of the U.K. is forecast to maintain predominantly settled and rather cold conditions across most areas, away from the far N and W.

WIND: SW moderate or fresh across the N and W, E or NE light across the S.

WEATHER: Dry across most areas with bright or sunny spells, particularly across Central and S areas once mist and fog patches slowly clear. It is expected to remain mostly cloudy across the far N and W with some patchy rain or showers at times and these wintry on N hills.

TEMPERATURE: Slightly below average, especially in the S and E with frost and patchy ice.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: Medium to high – 70%

Friday 10th February 2012
WARNINGS: Fog or Freezing Fog Patches (Central and S). Wintry Precipitation (Far N).

SUMMARY: Some patchy rain or showers across the far N or NW, otherwise dry, sunny and cold.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: A large area of high pressure is forecast to be located to the E or NE of the U.K. through the day and extend a ridge W across most regions, as a cold E’ly air mass dominates across many parts. 

WIND: SW moderate across the far N and W, otherwise E light or moderate

WEATHER: Dry across most areas of the U.K. with some bright or sunny spells once mist or fog patches slowly disperse but remaining cloudier across the far N and NW with some patchy rain or showers and these wintry at times.

TEMPERATURE: Slightly below average, especially across the S and E with a widespread frost.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: Medium – 60%

Saturday 11th February 2012
WARNINGS: Fog or Freezing Fog Patches (Central and S).

SUMMARY: Some patchy rain or showers across the far N and NW, otherwise settled and cold.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: High pressure to the E or NE of the U.K. maintains anticyclonic conditions across most areas of the U.K. with the exception of the far N and NW where a milder and more unsettled SW’ly air mass is forecast.

WIND: SW moderate across the far N and NW, E light further S and E.

WEATHER: Dry with bright or sunny spells across S and E areas once mist and fog patches disperse.  It is expected to remain mostly cloudy across the far N and NW with some patchy rain and showers at times.

TEMPERATURE: Slightly below average, especially across S and E with a widespread frost overnight.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: Medium – 55%

Sunday 12th February 2012
WARNINGS: Fog or Freezing Fog Patches (Many Areas).

SUMMARY: Dry across many areas with some bright or sunny spells.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: High pressure initially to the E of the U.K. is forecast to build W and become dominant across many areas and sustain rather cold and anticyclonic conditions across many parts.

WIND: W or SW light moderate across the N and W, E light further S and E.

WEATHER: Dry across many areas through the day with some bright or sunny spells, particularly across Central, S and E areas of the country once mist and fog patches disperse, though remaining cloudier across the far N and NW.

TEMPERATURE: Near average with a widespread frost across many inland areas.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: Low to medium – 50%

Mon 13th to Wed 15th February 2012
WARNINGS: Heavy Precipitation (N). Wintry Precipitation (N Hills). Icy Patches (N).

SUMMARY: Rather unsettled across the N, but with drier and brighter spells towards the S and W.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: Low pressure becomes dominant to the N and NE of the U.K. as high pressure redevelops to the W or SW, introducing a W or NW’ly airflow across the U.K.

WIND: W or NW light or moderate, fresh in the N. 

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy across the N with light or moderate, locally heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times, turning wintry over higher ground. Drier and brighter towards the S and W however, with some sunny spells, though with the risk of isolated light showers at times.

TEMPERATURE: Around average, with the risk of frost and patchy ice in the N overnight.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: Low to medium – 40%

Thu 16th to Mon 20th February 2012
WARNINGS: Strong Winds (N). Heavy Precipitation (N and W). Wintry Precipitation (N and W). Ice (N and W).

SUMMARY: Generally unsettled with rain and showers, these wintry in the N and W, drier spells further S.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION: Further low pressure systems move E across the N and NE of the U.K. as high pressure persists to the W or NW with a cold W or NW’ly air mass across the U.K.

WIND: W or NW moderate or fresh, strong in the N at times.

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy across many areas with light or moderate, locally heavy showers or longer spells of rain and with precipitation often wintry across the N and W. Drier and brighter in the S and SW, despite some showers or spells of rain at times.

TEMPERATURE: Near or slightly below average, especially in the N, with the risk of frost and ice in the N and W.

CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST: Low – 35%